Every bubble looks unique. Each one has its own technology, its own heroes, its own version of “this time is different.” But strip off the costume and the body underneath is always the same: a new idea, easy credit, euphoria, peak, panic, collapse.
And there is one more pattern that almost no one notices: the great bubbles coincide with the breaking points of the hegemonic cycle. A bubble is not just a financial event, it is a signal that the power structure is shifting.
1637 · Peak of Dutch hegemony
Tulip Mania
The 17th-century Netherlands was the center of the world. The largest fleet, the richest merchants, the first real stock exchange. And it was precisely in this environment that the first documented speculative bubble was born. Tulip bulbs became status symbols, rare varieties cost as much as a house on an Amsterdam canal.
In February 1637, one auction failed to attract buyers. Within days, prices dropped 90%. The bubble lasted only a few months, but the lesson is eternal.
Hegemonic context: A bubble at the very peak of hegemony. Surplus capital looks for somewhere to land and finds an absurd asset.
1720 · Early British hegemony
South Sea Bubble
The English government allowed a private company to take over national debt in exchange for a monopoly on trade with South America. The problem: there was no actual trade. But shares rose because everyone bought, and everyone bought because shares rose.
Newton invested, profited, sold, bought again at the top, and lost 20,000 pounds. “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Even a genius is not immune to FOMO.
Hegemonic context: Hegemony is changing hands. The new hegemon has surplus capital and surplus confidence, and burns both in a single bubble.
1845–1847 · Peak of British hegemony
Railway Mania
Railways were the internet of the 19th century. But when everyone believes it at the same time, capital flows faster than physics allows you to build.
By 1847, a third of the companies went bankrupt. But the railway itself survived. Between “this will work” and “we need to invest everything right now”, that is where the bubble lives. The same pattern will repeat with dot-com and AI.
Hegemonic context: Britain at the peak of its hegemony. Surplus capital rushes into the latest technology.
1920–1929 · Early US hegemony
The Roaring Twenties
After World War I, hegemony crossed the Atlantic. Shoeshine boys on Wall Street were giving stock tips. People bought shares with 10% down.
In October 1929, a cascading collapse wiped out 89% of market value. The Dow Jones didn’t return to its 1929 level until 1954, 25 years later.
Hegemonic context: A classic hegemonic transition. Britain weakens, the US rises. After the crash: Bretton Woods, dollar hegemony.
1971 · US hegemonic inflection point
The Gold Delinking (Nixon Shock)
Nixon announces: the dollar is no longer convertible to gold. A “temporary measure” that has been in effect for over fifty years.
From that day forward, money became purely a matter of trust. Every bubble after 1971 is structurally connected to this decision.
Hegemonic context: This is not a bubble, it is a regime change. You cannot finance an empire and maintain the gold standard at the same time. The solution: remove the brake.
2000 · Dot-com
The Dot-com Bubble
In 1999, adding “.com” to a company name was enough to double the stock price. Pets.com was worth hundreds of millions before going bankrupt in nine months.
NASDAQ fell 78% over two years. But the internet didn’t go anywhere. The technology didn’t die, the excess belief in it did.
Hegemonic context: US hegemony took a new form, technological. The dot-com bubble was not the end, but the first overheating of this new form of power.
2007–2009 · Structural break in US hegemony
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
The cheapest credit in history. Banks lent to people who couldn’t pay back. They packaged the loans into CDOs with AAA ratings and sold them to the entire world.
Lehman Brothers collapsed. Central banks printed trillions. That saved the system but created an even larger debt pyramid. The whole world saw that the US financial system could break. The seed of de-dollarization was planted here.
Hegemonic context: A Minsky cycle in its purest form. The moment when the hegemon’s vulnerability became visible. After 2008, BRICS and de-dollarization became practice, not theory.
2020–2026? · Late-stage hegemony
The Everything Bubble
COVID triggered the largest stimulus in human history. Money flooded into everything simultaneously: stocks, crypto, NFTs, SPACs, meme stocks.
In 2021, GameStop rose 1,500% in a week. A Bored Ape NFT cost $300,000. A dog-meme crypto reached $80 billion market cap.
In 2022, the Fed raised rates and part of the bubble deflated. But the market recovered, now driven by the AI narrative. The question: is this the final wave of euphoria before the supercycle climax?
Hegemonic context: All elements of previous bubbles combined, amplified by the late phase of hegemony. If this bubble pops, it pops not just financially, but geopolitically.
A bubble never announces its peak. But there are signals that historically repeat just before the break.
The primary signal: mega-IPO waves
When an era’s largest company goes public, it is often not the beginning, it is the end. Insiders choose to sell when the valuation is at maximum and they know it won’t get better.
2000 Mar
Dot-com IPO wave
→ NASDAQ peaked. Fell 78% over 2 years.
2006–07
Blackstone, Alibaba.com
→ GFC within 12 months.
2019
Uber, Lyft, WeWork
→ Peak of the “unicorn” era.
2020–21
SPACs + Coinbase + Rivian
→ Rivian: from $170 to $10.
2026
AI era peak signal?
SpaceX + xAI ~$1.5T IPO
→ Largest IPO in history.
OpenAI targeting ~$1T IPO
Anthropic ~$380B valuation
Stripe ~$120–159B
Databricks ~$130–160B
Revolut ~$75B
Canva ~$42B
SpaceX+xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic alone, nearly $3 trillion in IPO value. Add Stripe, Databricks, Revolut, Canva, the total approaches $4 trillion. Potentially the largest IPO wave in history.
